MTV Video Music Awards 2025: Data Predicts Winners

Kristian Gorenc Z

Aug 26, 2025

Understanding the VMAs and Their Place in Music

The MTV Video Music Awards, often abbreviated as the VMAs, have become one of the most significant cultural moments in the music calendar. First held in 1984 at New York City’s Radio City Music Hall, the event was designed as an alternative to the Grammy Awards in the video category. Over time, it developed into a ceremony with a reputation for drawing millions of young viewers, sometimes called the “Super Bowl for youth.”

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Traditionally taking place at the end of summer, the ceremony is broadcast live on MTV and simulcast across its sister networks. The winners receive a Moon Person statue, originally known as the Moonman, designed by Manhattan Design. Since 2006, fans have also had the opportunity to vote for their favorite artists online, increasing the engagement and impact of the awards.

This year, the ceremony will be held on September 7th. To provide a clear, data-driven perspective, let’s analyze two of the most closely watched categories: Artist of the Year and Song of the Year.

Artist of the Year: Who Deserves the Title?

The nominees for Artist of the Year are Bad Bunny, Beyoncé, Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga, Morgan Wallen, Taylor Swift, and The Weeknd. To evaluate them, we’ll use a framework that weighs reach and consumption (35%), scale (30%), momentum (20%), and engagement quality (15%).

When applying these metrics, Bad Bunny emerges as the strongest contender. Over the past 12 months, his Spotify streams reached nearly 20 billion, while his YouTube views exceeded 5.6 billion. These figures put him ahead of his peers in overall consumption. He also maintains a healthy scale, with more than 80 million monthly Spotify listeners, over 50 million YouTube subscribers, and close to 50 million Instagram followers. Importantly, his engagement metrics show that fans are not only numerous but also highly active.

The Weeknd comes close, leading in scale with more than 111 million monthly Spotify listeners and a larger Instagram following. However, his per-listener consumption and efficiency trail slightly behind Bad Bunny. This suggests that while The Weeknd has the biggest audience, Bad Bunny is doing more with his base.

Kendrick Lamar stands out in momentum and engagement. With more than 14 billion Spotify streams and over 113 million SoundCloud plays, combined with the highest YouTube like rate and strong fan interactions on Instagram, he demonstrates a strong upward trajectory. Under scenarios where momentum or engagement are given more weight, Lamar could take the lead.

When testing different weightings, Bad Bunny retains the top spot in most scenarios. Only when scale or engagement is heavily prioritized do The Weeknd or Kendrick Lamar surpass him. This suggests that by most reasonable definitions of “Artist of the Year,” Bad Bunny is the rightful winner for 2025.

Song of the Year: Breaking Down the Numbers

The nominees for Song of the Year are a diverse mix, including tracks by Alex Warren, Billie Eilish, Doechii, Ed Sheeran, Gracie Abrams, Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, Lorde, ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, Tate McRae, and The Weeknd with Playboi Carti. To identify the strongest candidate, we focus on Spotify streams, YouTube views, radio airplay, engagement rates, and playlist reach.

By this analysis, “Die With A Smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars takes the lead. The song performs strongly across all major platforms, combining high Spotify streams with equally impressive YouTube views. It also enjoys robust radio airplay, making it not just a streaming sensation but a track that resonates with traditional listeners as well. Its playlist reach further indicates sustained visibility.

Billie Eilish’s “BIRDS OF A FEATHER” shows remarkable strength in radio spins, making it the standout on that metric. However, compared to Gaga and Mars, its YouTube performance is more modest, which affects its overall balance across platforms.

ROSÉ and Bruno Mars dominate on YouTube, but the lack of strong radio presence limits their competitiveness. Similarly, The Weeknd and Playboi Carti’s “Timeless” has high engagement efficiency, but without comparable scale in reach, it doesn’t outpace the leaders.

Running sensitivity checks confirms the conclusion: in nearly every weighting scenario except one that prioritizes radio heavily, “Die With A Smile” emerges as the winner. This consistent strength across categories gives it an edge that others can’t match.

Final Thoughts

The upcoming MTV Video Music Awards promise to be a celebration of music at its most impactful. While the winners will ultimately be decided by MTV’s framework and fan engagement, a data-driven approach offers a unique perspective on who should take home the top prizes.

Based on streaming, video views, radio play, and engagement, Bad Bunny looks set to claim Artist of the Year. Meanwhile, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With A Smile” stands out as the most balanced and impactful contender for Song of the Year. If the VMAs are about capturing the pulse of contemporary music consumption, these two entries make the strongest case.