Stats Predict: Tyler Childers Could Win His First Grammy

Sara Mekinc

Jan 22, 2020

This year’s competition is tighter than a guitar string, so we turned to the data for some additional insight. More specifically, we looked at the nominees’ 2019 solo performance in terms of popularity (views, follows, plays, etc.) on major social media and streaming platforms. An “Instagrammy” award ceremony, so to say.

While all the nominees boast general growth in popularity, the stats suggest that Tyler Childers was the biggest growing performer of them all, and that “All Your’n” was the performance that cast the brightest online spotlight on its artist.


Here’s why the stats favor Childers.

Since the “All Your’n” video was released, Childers’ average monthly YouTube engagement has doubled (scoring more than 1M views). His social media and streaming channels showed immense growth in 2019, and the jumps in popularity are consistent with both the song’s premiere and the release of the “Country Squire” album. Moreover, Childers is the only nominee who managed to consistently pump up his numbers by at least +50%, rivalled only by Ashley McBryde in a close second (she's also the second youngest contender in this category), and two veterans: Tanya Tucker’s impressive 127% rise in Instagram fan growth in 2019, and Willie Nelson doubling his monthly YouTube engagements compared to 2018. 

Quick facts:

• > “God’s Country” has sold 494k copies in the US as of December 2019, and launched Shelton into the Top 10 Country artists of the year.
• 
  > “Ride Me Back Home” (2019) is Nelson’s 69th solo album, and throughout his career, the artist has been nominated for a Grammy 52 times already.
• 
  > “Country Squire” (2019) debuted at #1 on Billboard’s Top Country Albums chart, and this is Childers’ first Grammy nomination.
• 
  > “While I’m Livin’” (2019) is Tucker’s first new original album in 17 years, and she has yet to win a Grammy.
• 
  > McBryde recently won the CMA’s “New Artist of the Year” award, and has announced the release of her second album in 2020.

The buzz also speaks in Childers’ favor.

Granted, “All Your’n” is considered an unusual entry. It’s also competing with Blake Shelton’s mammoth hit “God’s Country”, as well as Tanya Tucker, who is returning to the Grammy stage with the 14th nomination of her impressive career. She's rumored to finally be snatching her first Grammy, and as she's nominated in four categories, there’s a very good chance she'll win the prestigious “Country Album of the Year” instead. 

Combining that with the fact that Grammy juries tend to intentionally overlook massive radio hits in favor of more “exciting” work, and that the Country music scene has been vocally championing younger (non-Nashville) talent in recent years, it's highly likely that Childers will take home his first Grammy this January – and the stats prove he’d deserve it.

Photos courtesy of artists:
Blake Shelton by Warner Music Nashville; Willie Nelson by David McClister; Tyler Childers by David McClister; Ashley McBryde by Alysse Gafkjen; Tanya Tucker by Danny Clinch

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